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After a challenging year due to injuries, how will 14-time French Open champion Rafael Nadal play in what could be his final tournament at Roland Garros? After a difficult season so far, can Novak Djokovic come back to win a record 25th Grand Slam title?
Iga Swiatek looks unbeatable right now — but can Elena Rybakina, Aryna Sabalenka or Coco Gauff stand in her way?
Our experts weigh in as the French Open gets underway on Sunday.
How do you think Nadal will fare here?
Bill Connelly: When we last saw Nadal in 2022, he was holding serve 79% of the time and breaking 40% of the time on clay. In 11 matches on clay this year, he actually held 81% of the time… but only broke 30%. His defense — and ability to turn defense into offense — isn’t exactly solid, and he drew perhaps the worst possible matchup in the first round. Alexander Zverev is a more consistent big servant than Hubert Hurkacz, and Hurkacz manhandled Nadal in Rome. The fans will do their best to support him, but it is difficult to be optimistic about him winning his final match at Roland Garros.
Tom Hamilton: Nadal has surprised us before. Remember his Australian Open win in 2022 when he won it all just a few months after he thought he would have to retire? He then won Roland Garros later that year due to numbness in his foot as he suffered from chronic pain caused by Müller-Weiss Syndrome.
If anyone can find the last two weeks magic, it’s Nadal. But as we’ve learned from tennis, the game rarely offers fairytale endings. We don’t know how the 14-time champion feels. But one thing is certain: he will squeeze every last ounce out of his frame (most likely) to get one last shot at the title.
Darcy Maine: I agree with Tom that if anyone is going to find some unexpected last-minute magic at Roland Garros, it will be Nadal, but this draw has done him no favors. Having to face Zverev – the fourth seed who just won the title in Rome – in the first round will be very difficult. Zverev has reached the French Open semifinals three times, including last year, and has momentum and health in his team at the moment. It would be surprising to see Nadal make his final run at his favorite tournament, but that seems unlikely given his recent results and injury woes.
Will Djokovic get his season back on track in Paris?
be mine: The fact that he played this week in Geneva was a bit of a shock, and an admission that his form has not reached the form he had hoped or expected in 2024. But there has not really been any major theme to focus on his losses this year. He was unable to serve against Alejandro Tabello in Rome. He couldn’t Back Submission against Alex De Minaur in the United Cup. He was nervous and foul-prone against Luca Nardi in Indian Wells. He was unlucky against Casper Ruud in Monte Carlo, winning 54% of the points but losing all the wrong ones. If Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner are at their best, I would be skeptical about Djokovic’s chances. But he has as good a chance as anyone to win this tournament.
Hamilton: It has been an uncharacteristic year for Djokovic. But as we’ve all learned – rule it out at your own risk. No one in the draw would want to play him, and he has an amazing ability to reach another level in the Grand Slams. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him lift the trophy on June 9, but if he does, it will be one of his most notable wins to date.
who: Well, he sure should hope so. After the last several years he has spent on the Tour and with the ambitious goals he has for 2024, it is almost inconceivable to think that he has not even reached the final after this season. Some of his losses this year were truly surprising. Djokovic said he was “worried” about his chances at Roland Garros after losing to Tomas Mattak (while suffering from a stomach ailment) in Geneva this week.
But, let’s not forget that he is still Novak Djokovic. He has had other seasons where he struggled and then rediscovered his form at just the right time (see: Wimbledon, 2018). Why not again now, right? I remember what he said last year after falling in the quarter-finals in Rome, and I think it’s still accurate: “I always like my Grand Slam chances against anyone on any surface, best-of-five.”
Which player will challenge two-time defending champion Swiatek the most?
be mine: In the past 13 months, only one player has beaten Swiatek on clay: Rybakina. So this is my default answer. Rybakina has been absolutely absurdly consistent in 2024 — 2-2 against Swiatek and Sabalenka and 28-3 against everyone else — and while each draw has its own set of potential holes (she could play with Angelique Kerber in the second round and Elina Svitolina) and in the fourth ), hers seems manageable. But the fact that Swiatek only has to beat one of Rybakina or Sabalenka is a boon to her chances, not that she needs the help.
Hamilton: It must be either Rybakina or Sabalenka. Swiatek would likely win the entire tournament, but Sabalenka pushed her to her limits in Madrid, while Rybakina surpassed her in Stuttgart and went on to win the entire tournament. So either of those two, but it’s going to take a truly epic performance to turn Swiatek around over the next couple of weeks.
who: I don’t see anyone legitimately challenging Swiatek in this tournament. However, she will likely have a tough fight in the second round in what could be a huge showdown with Naomi Osaka. While the four-time champion hasn’t had much luck on clay and has only just returned from maternity leave at the start of the season, Osaka has had some impressive wins on the surface against Marta Kostyuk and Daria Kasatkina and seems to be getting better with every match she plays.
Assuming Swiatek escapes this meeting, others on her way to the final who could be tough include a red-hot Danielle Collins in the quarter-finals and Gauff in the semi-finals.
Which player in the top 15 could surprise him in the next two weeks?
be mine: I think I’ll answer Mira Andreeva here for every Grand Slam until she gets into the top 15. It’s only a matter of time. Her draw is tough, as she may face Victoria Azarenka in the second round, Kasatkina in the third round, Maria Sakkari in the fourth round, and Sabalenka in the quarter-finals, but she is still capable of doing so.
On the men’s front, what about Jan-Lennard Struff? He beat Holger Röhn and Taylor Fritz en route to the Munich title, and his only losses on clay since last year’s French Open were to Sinner, Alcaraz (in a final set tiebreak) and Stefanos Tsitsipas (in three sets).
Hamilton: It was an ode to Jiri Lehica, who knocked out Nadal and Daniil Medvedev in Madrid, before succumbing to a back injury. This cruel development led to his exclusion from the tournament. So, instead, let’s pick Marton Fucsovics to move into Week 2, and Francisco Cerundolo and Tabello to also ruffle some feathers.
On the women’s side, I’d normally back Jelena Ostapenko as an outside player, but her form has seen her stand out as one of the chasers behind Swiatek, so let’s go with Sara Sorribes Tormo, who has taken down some big names in recent weeks on clay. .
who: There are a good number, in both men’s and women’s draws. And in the men’s draw, which looks more wide open than it has in years, things could get interesting. Nicolas Jarry, seeded No. 16, reached his first ever Masters 1000 final in Rome earlier this month and has been impressive throughout his career. He may have found his best form at just the right time. Similar sentiments can be said about Felix Auger-Aliassime, the No. 21 seed, who made a comeback in Madrid.
On the women’s side, 17-year-old Andreeva, a quarter-finalist in Madrid, can be a threat, and you can never count out Sloane Stephens on clay. The 2018 Roland Garros finalist is unseeded, but always seems to be playing at her best in Paris.
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