Betting by the numbers: Saquon Barkley attracts more bets than some NFL teams, a ‘fake scam’ in Texas and Georgia

There’s no love lost between the professional sports teams in New York and Philadelphia, so after Saquon Barkley left the New York Giants for the Philadelphia Eagles over the offseason, his return to MetLife Stadium was always going to be emotionally charged. The bettors were counting on him and spending their money.

At sportsbooks across the country, Saquon Barkley’s anytime touchdown (-175) was the most popular player prop on Sunday, attracting more bets and handles than any other prop on ESPN BET, BetMGM or DraftKings. Barkley cashed in the brace about midway through the second quarter on a three-yard run en route to a 176-yard gain during the Eagles’ 28-3 dismantling of the Giants. Philadelphia easily covered -3, which was also among the most popular bets on Sunday.

Betting tracker Pikkit, which collects betting data across sportsbooks, says the 32,150 Barkley ATD bets it tracked were more than any individual team on the moneyline. The company also reports that it has seen four times more bets than the second most bet on scoring a touchdown (AJ Brown).

It was a big win for the betting public, but the damage was mitigated slightly for sports bettors who partly expected a big move upon Barkley’s return to New York, making the odds of landing the 27-year-old very short. Caesars Sportsbook’s vice president of merchandising, Craig McCullough, called it a “second best result for customers” for that reason despite the high volume.

“Barkley, given the angle and the incentive, would have scored -175, making Tank Bigsby the biggest paying prospect,” he said. “Another week where short-priced scorers are handed out primarily to the betting public.”

Barkley’s rookie season in Philadelphia has made him one of the favorites to win Offensive Player of the Year — +450 entering Sunday, trailing only Derrick Henry (+165) at ESPN BET — and bettors are backing him there, too.

ESPN BET and DraftKings both reported that Barkley is the leader in terms of bets and handles to win the prize, with the former saying he has attracted 7.6% of bets and 10.3% of the money. BetMGM also reported that Barkley is the handle leader (8.9%), with only Amon-Ra St. Brown in tickets (8.1%).

The Eagles now stand at 4-2 and trail the Washington Commanders at the top of the NFC East, but have played fewer games. It’s a somewhat surprising situation given that Philadelphia was a -135 preseason favorite to win the division, with Washington in third place at +1100 odds, according to ESPN BET.

Given the delicious long odds, Commanders proved to be a popular choice among fans, attracting over 42% of tickets at ESPN BET and BetMGM. However, the Eagles still controlled the ball at 73.4%.

Edited by Oddsmaker: Jayden Daniels‘Injury

Oddsmakers were trying to figure out how much Daniels was worth in the spread after the Washington Commanders’ rookie quarterback left Sunday’s win over the Carolina Panthers with a rib injury.

Daniels’ condition ahead of next week’s home game against Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears was not known Sunday night, but there were reports that Daniels was “doing fine.”

The Leaders were listed as 2.5-point favorites over the Bears in early lines available last week at some sportsbooks. The line settled on their selection Sunday night.

John Murray, executive director of Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, said they got the Bears big money as well as points on their early streak. “We reopened the Bears +1, due to a combination of that bet and the possibility of Daniels getting hit,” Murray said. “It’s hard to gauge Daniels. We’re moving forward as if he’ll play next week but we’re monitoring him closely.”

Oddsmakers estimated Daniels could be worth as much as three to four points in spread if he can’t go and backup Marcus Mariota will start.

Daniels entered Sunday as the consensus favorite (-275) to win Rookie of the Year and had the fourth-best odds (12-1) to win ESPN BET’s Most Valuable Player award. He did enough against the Panthers to help bettors, rushing for 47 yards on the Chiefs’ first play and finishing with 50 yards on three attempts, atop ESPN BET’s rushing yards (49.5) stanchion.

The Cleveland Browns have likely lost quarterback Deshaun Watson for the season due to an Achilles injury. The Oddsmakers weren’t planning on making a major adjustment for the Browns’ game next week against the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens were about 10-point favorites over the Browns on Sunday.

Red hot road favorites fuel bettors’ hot streak

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Damien Woody and Rex Ryan dismantle the Jets after loss to the Steelers

Damien Woody and Rex Ryan attack Jets players after their loss to the Steelers amid the team’s ongoing struggles. (release)

The New York Jets snapped a streak of 15 consecutive road favorites to cover the gap with their loss to the underdog Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night.

Despite the Jets’ loss, the fan-favorite road coverage series helped exceed expectations for the second Sunday in a row. Caesars Sportsbook’s Mucklow said bettors were on a “red hot streak” at his store, with wins by the Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles and Buffalo Bills, the three biggest early slate decisions on Sunday, all going against the house.

‘Fake’ move: Rotating Coast point spread between Georgia and Texas

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Referees overturn the deciding PI call after fans throw trash onto the field

After the referees called the controversial pass interference play, Texans fans threw trash on the field and the call was reversed.

Last Wednesday, the point spread on the Georgia-Texas matchup went from -3.5 to -5.5 during a 20-minute flurry of bets at several sportsbooks. But by the start of Saturday, enough money had arrived in Georgia to bring the line back to Texas -3.5.

“It definitely looked like a group faked the Texas line and then went back to Georgia,” Superbook’s Murray told ESPN.

From time to time, betting syndicates will place bets on one side of the game in an attempt to push the line to a more favorable number. Then, later in the week, the same group may bet larger amounts on the other team with the more advantageous number. This tactic is known as “head faking” in the betting industry.

Georgia closed as a 3.5-point underdog and won 30-15.

Odds and Ends

80: Justin Jefferson’s 80-plus yards rusher was the most notable player to not have a touchdown on ESPN BET on Sunday. Jefferson finished with seven catches for 81 yards.

49: Pittsburgh Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is outspoken as the underdog after the Steelers’ 37-15 win over the New York Jets. It’s the second-most ever behind Don Shula (55-58). At 49-43 (.533), Tomlin has the second-best outright winning percentage as an underdog (min. 10 games) behind only Matt LaFleur (18-12, .600).

14: Notre Dame opened as a 14-point favorite over Navy in Saturday’s game at MetLife Stadium. Navy 6-0. Notre Dame is 6-1.

$2 million: In September, a bettor at Caesars Sportsbook placed a $500 bet on Navy to win the national championship at 4,000-1. The bet will pay a net $2 million.

0-7: Air Force’s record against the spread this season is the only team to have failed to cover the spread in each of their games so far.

$100,000: A bettor at Caesars Sportsbook this week placed a $100,000 bet on the Ravens to win the AFC North at +325. The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite on the road.

$1000: A bettor with DraftKings has placed a $1,000 bet on Davante Adams to score two or more goals in his Jets debut at odds of 13-1. Adams finished with three catches for 30 yards and no touchdowns.

+360: Georgia regained the role of national championship favorite with an impressive road win at Texas on Saturday. The Bulldogs are at +360 on ESPN BET, followed by Ohio State (+400), Oregon (+500) and Texas (+500).